This line was headfaked in may when Martin Armstrong was worried about a premature “phase transition”. The time may be ripe for the phase transition since Bernanke stopped pretending he wouldn’t print. Is it time to go parabolique in gold? If this is not a second headfake we may be in for a nice parabolic run..
Pah-rah-bo-lick?
1 down 4 to go
Complete five wave structure down. Tomorrow’s a retrace day possibly to 77. Tomorrow afternoonish or wednesday we should rocket up.
The only way is up
All kinds of 5’s going up. 3’s coming down. This thing is going nowhere else but more up. Minimum target is 90 and I think 106 will be reached.
Goldman is bullish = sell!!
There are a few factors making me uber-bearish about brent.
The first is the classic head and shoulders formation that has formed at the end of a wave many people have labeled an extended 5. Excellent recipe for a head and shoulders that actually works!
Secondly, it seems certain that FED is going to try to extend the `no-QE3` PR stunt as long as possible which is certainly deflationary for asset prices. We need to see the deflation in action to be scared enough to go along with QE3.
While these are the two main themes, one technical, the other fundamental that have shaped my opinion auxiliary factors are also confirming. These auxiliary factors are:
a)I’m expecting a nice little bull-run in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. A drop in oil prices could well be the white knight that the Current Account Deficit is waiting for in Turkey.
b)Goldman sell-side is bullish oil after a temporary flip-flop where they had gone bearish three weeks before going bullish. This most probably means they are unloading their oil to their clients as they have documentedly done in the past.
Doctor, what is it? It's a five wave structure sir.
Now, did the correction end yesterday or was this just the first leg of a more complex correction? This was the question de jour in elliott circles yesterday. I had believed that the correction would end on the 30th which I had declared in my earlier posts.
Now I have evidence and here’s my verdict: In two days’ price action we have clearly seen a five wave structure which completed 2 hours before the close today. So we’re well into a correction of this approximately 3.500 point leg that should end by 11.30 tomorrow where the index should find itself somewhere around 76/75.5. Then we should rocket up for a nice little 3.1.3
76/75.5 are buy opportunities for tomorrow.
Finally ready for the election rally?
I have counted a perfect minute 1 that ended at 87 and a perfect minute 2 that ended today at 74.
It’s time for minute 3 with a target of 106.000
That election rally may come out from wherever it is hiding. The market seems depressed enough…
Deep Minute 2 Required before Minute 3
the first chart is what I had posted earlier:
the second chart is what happened so far:
there’s nothing to add. i think this will rebound from 74. if it doesn’t then we can welcome a much much deeper correction targeting 64.
Almost there
Crossing the Blue Line may be Dangerous to Your Wealth
Silver corrected in five waves down which implies another five legs after a relief rally. Anything above 39 seems like a good place to sell. Crossing the blue line would be a very dramatic event for silver which would take it to the red line around 22. Crossing 22 would be the end of the magnificient silver rally which I believe is very highly unlikely.
Deep Minute 2 Required before Minute 3
Friday’s downward action was a surprise to everyone who counted three waves down because it completed the fifth wave down.
This implies another leg down after a brief retrace.
My proposed trajectory for Minor 2 is as follows:
Minuette B completes at 82.000/83.000 on Tuesday May 17th
Minuette C completes at 77.000/73.000 by end May/early June
One Way or Another.. You're Going Up...
So here’s my latest count on the ISE. Everybody seems pretty confused. Were we rallying or was that just a reaction? If it was a rally what was this 7.000 point drop?
Confusion is consistent with my count because waves 1 and 2 are always characterized by confusion.
This count is also obviously uber-bullish as such.
We probably are going to oscillate a little bit more between 86/77 before finally starting that powerful 3 rally…
The target of the count is 106.000 in ISE30.